The standings after four games for each team look as follows:
1. Austria 9
2. Korea 9
3. Kazakhstan 8
4. Poland 7
5. Hungary 3
6. Ukraine 0

The places for the last two teams are already carved in stone. Hungary will finish in fifth place, host Ukraine will end up in last place and be relegated. That leaves four teams who can still finish anywhere between first and fourth place on Super Friday in Kyiv.

Three games are left to be played today:
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan 13:30 (12:30 CET, 16:30 KAZ time)
Poland vs. Austria 17:00 (16:00 CET)
Korea vs. Ukraine 20:30 (2:30am in Korea)

That gives 64 possible scenarios the standings could end up and Korea as a favourite thanks to wins in the head-to-head games against two of the three top-4 opponents. Here’s what the teams need to do in order to end up in the top-two and play in the top division next year.

Korea, mathematical probability: 80%

A win against Ukraine – no matter whether in regulation time or after – enables Korea to get promoted.

A point from a loss in overtime or shootout against Ukraine can be enough if Kazakhstan doesn’t beat Hungary in regulation time. Or if Kazakhstan beats Hungary in regulation time but Austria loses to Poland in regulation time.

A loss in regulation time to Ukraine will likely cost promotion. Except if Kazakhstan loses to Hungary and Poland doesn’t beat Austria in regulation time.

Austria, mathematical probability: 70%

Austria will make it with a regulation-time win against Poland.

An overtime or shootout win except works too in the following scenarios: Kazakhstan doesn’t beat Hungary in regulation time. Or: Kazakhstan wins in regulation time but Korea doesn’t beat Ukraine in regulation time.

A point from an overtime or shootout loss to Poland can be enough except in the following scenario: Kazakhstan beats Hungary and Korea beats Ukraine.

A loss in regulation time to Poland will likely cost promotion. Except if Hungary beats Kazakhstan and Korea loses in regulation time to Ukraine.

Kazakhstan, mathematical probability: 34%

Kazakhstan needs to win and some help from the other teams.

If Kazakhstan wins in regulation time against Hungary it must hope that Poland beats Austria in the second game. Or if Austria wins in regulation time, Kazakhstan must hope that Korea loses to Ukraine. If Austria wins in overtime or shootout, Kazakhstan must hope that either Korea loses the game or wins it in regulation time, otherwise a three-team tie with Austria, Korea and Kazakhstan would occur with Austria and Korea as promoted teams.

Also an overtime or shootout win against Hungary can be enough in some cases: If Poland beats Austria in regulation time. If Poland beats Austria in overtime/shootout but Korea doesn’t lose to Ukraine in overtime/shootout otherwise a three-team tie with Austria, Korea and Kazakhstan would occur with Austria and Korea as promoted teams. If Austria beats Poland but Korea loses to Ukraine in regulation time.

If Kazakhstan loses to Hungary, it will end up in third or fourth place.

Poland, mathematical probability: 16%

Only a regulation-time win against Austria and help from the other teams can enable Poland to move from first to second or even first place.

This is what has to happen apart from a regulation-time win in its own game: Hungary needs to beat Kazakhstan. If Kazakhstan beats Hungary, Poland will need Korea to lose in regulation time against Ukraine.

If Poland doesn’t beat Austria in regulation time, it will end up in third or fourth place.

Follow the games

Follow the games in TV, it is broadcast in the participating countries and some others. For countries without broadcast rights for the tournament, a live stream is available. Follow the live ticker on wmia2007.iihf.com where you will also find the story, quotes, stats, photos and game highlights after the games.